Predicting summer thunderstorms isn't always easy, especially in an age of instant gratification.
We (generally speaking) want to know exactly where and exactly when, when that's not always possible to predict.
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Imagine this. You take a bunch of popcorn kernels, and pour them into a glass bowl. Now, predict which ones will pop and which ones won't.
Not so easy, now, is it?
If you think about the way kernels pop and summer storms pop, the process is almost identical.
What makes kernels pop off?
Let's isolate one popcorn kernel. In it, there's a water droplet. When you put it in the microwave or cook it on the stove, you're (obviously) heating things up.
The expansion of water vapor when you heat things up builds pressure within the shell.
Eventually, that pressure becomes too much and...*pop* you've got yourself a treat!
What makes thunderstorms pop off?
Now, let's take a hot and humid summer day. There's plenty of water vapor. On these hot days, the air is more buoyant. The water vapor rises and expands into a cloud.
That rising and expanding continues, allowing the cloud to build to a point where it can't take it much longer. And...*pop* you've got yourself a thunderstorm.
Forecasting summer storms
You can imagine, then, how difficult it is to be precise when forecasting summer storms. Some days, the location of storms is just random. Sure, it's hot and it's humid. Some air parcels (kernels) reach their fullest potential, while others don't.
Other days, there's a clear boundary that initiates storms. That's closer to what we've seen in recent days.
Most often, your summer storm chances are between 20 and 50%. If you were to take an idealized radar scan (which is a circle), it would look something like what you see below.
Have questions about the weather and how it works?
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