The NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (the “Index”), an indicator of the direction of the State economy, declined slightly in August, the latest month with available data. The Index fell 1.0% from its reading in June.
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However, the reduction was almost totally due to a 4.9% pullback in building permits. On the positive side, there was a 5% reduction in initial jobless claims, which translates to a “plus” for the Index.
The other factors showed no or little change from June.
Given the uncertainty about interest rates, Federal Reserve policy, tariffs and the strength of the economy, some builders may be pausing construction until a clearer view of the economy emerges.
In the meantime, the outlook for the North Carolina economy is steady, meaning no large swings upward or downward in economic growth. This is a sensible forecast when there are so many “economic balls in the air.” Once those balls land – and hopefully that will be soon – we’ll have a clearer look at the future of the North Carolina economy. So, keep watching!
About the Index: The Index is composed of five components: the national leading index from the Conference Board, North Carolina initial claims for unemployment benefits, North Carolina building permits, average weekly hours of work of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing, and average weekly earnings of all North Carolina employees in manufacturing. All data are seasonally-adjusted and modified for differences in prices levels where appropriate. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Conference Board. All calculations are done by Dr. Michael Walden, and comments can be sent to michael_walden@ncsu.edu.