When Tropical Storm Chantal stalled over central North Carolina last summer, nearly 9 inches of rain fell in Chapel Hill in less than a day, overwhelming drainage systems and flooding Eastgate Crossing. Some storefronts have yet to reopen.
“Every time we have any sort of large weather event with water, we have places that predictably flood,” Chapel Hill Mayor Jess Anderson said.
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Town leaders say storms can no longer be treated as rare events.
“The data is clear,” Anderson said. “We are getting not only more severe storms, but they’re happening more often. It’s no longer something that could happen in the future — it’s here.”
According to federal climate data, rainfall intensity in the Raleigh-Durham area has increased by about 21% since 1970, a trend scientists link to human-caused climate change. Warmer air holds more moisture, fueling heavier downpours that strain aging infrastructure.
This week at Duke University, researchers and engineers unveiled “Built to Endure,” a new guide aimed at helping small and midsize cities better prepare for rising flood risks. The guide was developed by Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability in partnership with Bentley Systems, the American Society of Civil Engineers, AECOM and Microsoft.
The 51-page guide outlines practical steps communities can take to assess vulnerabilities, improve planning and use digital tools to model future flood scenarios before investing in costly infrastructure projects.
“We really wanted to help out the smaller municipalities, particularly here in North Carolina, where one-third of the state lives in rural areas,” said Rory Linehan of Bentley Systems, a co-author of the guide.
Smaller towns often lack the staff and funding of larger cities but face similar risks from stronger storms and growing development.
The guide promotes updated modeling tools that allow cities to compare potential solutions — such as drainage improvements, nature-based infrastructure or building retrofits — and evaluate how each performs under different storm scenarios.
“I need to be able to look and see which ones do the best compared to each other and based on our real-world situation,” Anderson said.
Researchers argue that investing in resilience can save money in the long run.
“One dollar of investing in resilience at the front end can get a benefit of between $4 to $13 on the other side,” Linehan said, “not to mention all the lives that we can save.”
Chapel Hill officials say town staff is reviewing new modeling efforts and working with regional partners to identify potential flood mitigation projects.
For leaders in Chapel Hill, the focus is shifting from recovery to preparation — with the next major storm seen not as a question of if, but when.
