Scientists have long warned that the planet is warming. Now, new research suggests it may be warming faster than previously understood.
A study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that the rate of global warming has accelerated over the past decade. Researchers estimate the Earth warmed about 0.35 degrees Celsius between 2015 and 2025, compared with about 0.2 degrees per decade between 1970 and 2015.
Other WRAL Top Stories
The findings suggest the world could cross a critical climate threshold sooner than expected.
“If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5 degree limit before 2030,” study author Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.
That 1.5-degree target, set in the Paris climate agreement, is considered a key guardrail for limiting the worst climate impacts.
But scientists say the number itself represents something larger.
“When you have an average warming of one degree, it translates into many more extremely hot days in specific locations,” said Sarav Arunachalam, a professor at the University of North Carolina’s Institute for the Environment who studies emissions and air quality.
More warming also means warmer oceans, which contribute to sea-level rise and stronger storms.
“When you have higher degrees of warming, you have more sea-level rise and then more extreme events,” Arunachalam said.
Scientists still debating the pace of warming
The idea that warming could be accelerating has been debated among climate researchers for several years.
Earth’s climate system contains many natural variations — including El Niño cycles, volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity — that can temporarily raise or lower global temperatures.
To isolate the long-term warming trend, the researchers analyzed five global temperature datasets and removed the effects of those natural influences.
Their analysis found a statistically significant increase in the warming rate.
Some scientists remain cautious, noting the climate system is complex and longer observations will be needed to confirm whether the trend continues.
But the recent streak of record-breaking heat has intensified the discussion. The past decade has been the warmest in recorded history, and 2024 was the hottest year ever measured globally.
What it means for North Carolina
While the study examined global temperatures, climate scientists say its findings have implications for states like North Carolina.
According to the North Carolina Climate Science Report, the state has warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 120 years. That is slightly less than the global average, but warming here has accelerated in recent decades.
The 2009–2018 decade was the warmest on record in North Carolina, surpassing even the Dust Bowl-era heat of the 1930s. In 2019, the state recorded its warmest year in more than a century of observations.
Scientists have also observed another trend: nights are getting hotter.
The five-year period from 2015 to 2019 produced the warmest overnight temperatures in the state’s recorded history. Warmer nights can increase health risks during heat waves and place stress on agriculture and ecosystems.
Climate models suggest warming will continue through this century. If greenhouse gas emissions remain high, North Carolina could warm six to ten degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, according to the report.
Even with slower emissions growth, scientists still expect two to six degrees of warming.
More extreme weather risks
Warming temperatures can also intensify extreme weather.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which can lead to heavier rainfall during storms. In North Carolina, extreme rainfall events have already become more frequent in recent decades.
Major storms have repeatedly tested the state’s resilience — including hurricanes Matthew, Florence and Dorian and the flooding devastation associated with Hurricane Helene.
Arunachalam said warming can amplify these types of disasters.
Federal data tracking billion-dollar disasters shows the number of costly weather events in the United States has surged in recent years.
Between 1980 and 2024, the country averaged about nine billion-dollar disasters per year. In the past five years, that number has risen to about 23 annually.
“With more warming, we are likely to have even more of these billion-dollar disasters,” Arunachalam said. “It becomes a climate problem, a health problem and an economic problem.”
Looking ahead
Scientists say every fraction of warming matters because climate impacts grow more severe as temperatures climb.
Higher temperatures raise sea levels along coastlines, increase the frequency of dangerous heat and intensify rainfall during storms.
For North Carolina, that could mean greater flood risks along the coast and hotter summers inland.
“When people hear that warming may be accelerating, the most important thing to understand is the risk,” Arunachalam said. “Climate impacts affect health, and when health is affected, it has economic impacts for communities.”
Researchers say the pace of future warming will ultimately depend on how quickly greenhouse gas emissions are reduced.
But the new study suggests the climate system may already be changing faster than scientists once thought.