A newly founded 'Geography of Prosperity' index ranked Durham No. 2 nationally. The data project compiled several dozen growth indicators to make the ranking.
The Triangle is represented twice in the top ten, with Raleigh ranking No. 8.
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But what exactly is it?
The index compiled data points across the largest 250 U.S. cities, "not on growth, but on a range of factors that are intended to represent future-readiness for a prosperous life."
"There are really great places on paper, economically, with skyscrapers going up and new businesses moving in, that really don't necessarily have the foundational elements needed to move from economic success into long term durability," said Bradley Schurman, the index's co-creator.
Five metrics are weighed equally:
- Population renewal
- Social cohesion
- Governance and foresight
- Automation and AI readiness
- Climate resilience
The index aggregates more than two dozen data sources such as workforce development spending, census data, FEMA risk data, walkability scoring, infrastructure investment and more to compile the rankings.
Durham, one of the three municipalities in the top ten with a population less than 400,000, outranks major U.S. tech cities like Washington, D.C., Seattle and San Francisco.
Why exactly is that?
WRAL: Do you think that people will see that and then, you know, maybe roll their eyes at the data?
Schurman: I think it's really the big question of, first, how we pulled the data together, and second, what we're actually measuring? We're not measuring startups. We're not measuring measuring AI startups to open in your city. But when you take a look at Durham, because it has the foundational elements in place, it actually sets the right groundwork for Google to open offices there, which it did recently. So there is an economic opportunity that comes if you do have the groundwork in place, and Durham has done that work and is reaping the rewards as a result of this. But it's not just the starting or the opening or the launching of these new AI or tech companies that will happen. It's whether or not your employees, your citizens who are workers, can actually find jobs, whether or not they're actually trained for the new economy.
The other localities making the top ten with a population less than half a million people are Ann Arbor, Michigan and Frederick, Maryland.
Schurman admitted there are several key indicators not present in the rankings, such as cost of living. However, that topic came up when discussing where Durham and Raleigh compare to other growing metro areas.
WRAL: "What does this region offer that maybe the others don't like? What sets this area unique from this index, specifically compared to the other cities that it's in 'competition' with.?"
Schurman: When you get to a critical mass of people moving to a place where it gets to that best of list status, like the Nashvilles of the world, it might already be too late for opportunity to really show up, for people to find it and make really solid investments that can grow over time. Nashville is very expensive right now. Austin's very expensive right now.
The Triangle's appearance on a ranking of growing American cities is not uncommon, often appearing in similar kinds of lists.
For example, Raleigh and Durham take the No. 4 ranking in the American Growth Project at the University of North Carolina's Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
Dr. Gerald Cohen, chief economist at the Kenan Institute, questioned the separation of Raleigh and Durham as different cities in the rankings.
"Our work in the American Growth Project actually combines the Triangle as as a single economic entity," Cohen told WRAL.
Artificial intelligence is a key factor for both projects: the American Growth Project looking at investment while the Prosperity rankings measure readiness.
How the factors are weighed, Cohen says, is where growth projects like these often differ.
"'[They say] we're not about economic growth, we're about the quality of the growth. But we're saying, 'Well what are drivers of growth, and are those drivers sustainable?'"