One-third of North Carolinians align themselves with President Donald Trump’s “make America great again” movement, and fewer than one-third of North Carolinians align with democratic socialists, according to the results of a new Elon University poll.
The results, released Tuesday, underscore the power of moderates in statewide races, including the contest for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat, according to political analysts. And they come three months before midterm elections that political analysts expect to be a referendum on the president’s policies.
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The Elon University Poll and YouGov surveyed 800 North Carolina adults in late July. Thirty-four percent of respondents identified as MAGA followers, the poll found. A smaller number — 29% — identified as democratic socialists. Another 26% identified as “political homeless,” while 20% identified as “Libertarian.” The poll had a margin of error of 4.24 percentage points.
MAGA identity in particular could play a role in the race for the seat being vacated by Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll. Results released from the same poll last week found Democrat Roy Cooper with an 11-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley among likely voters.
Whatley, who is endorsed by Trump, was among the president’s first key supporters in North Carolina when he ran for the GOP nomination in the 2016 presidential race. Whatley then helped Trump carry the Tar Heel State in 2020 while working as chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, and again in 2024 as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Cooper, who has tried to appeal to moderates in past campaigns, won two terms as governor in years when Trump also won North Carolina.
Elon pollsters don’t have historical data showing North Carolinians’ association with MAGA through the years, Husser said. But the number likely bodes poorly for the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, he said “I do think we’d see higher MAGA numbers and better numbers for Whatley if Trump had higher marks,” Husser told WRAL.
“We're seeing a lot of North Carolinians frustrated that President Trump wins in 2024 because he promises a more robust economy throughout the nation, yet people aren't seeing it being delivered,” Husser said.
Trump’s approval rating fell to 33% — the lowest in his presidency — in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday.
Elon poll results released last week found only 36% support for Trump’s second-term actions, while 54% disapproved. It also found Whatley struggling with voters who don’t consider themselves Republican or Democrat. Independents — who make up an enormous voting bloc in the state — split 49% for Cooper and 22% for Whatley. That could prove a difference-maker in a state known for races decided by razor-thin margins.
The results released Tuesday show that candidates could benefit by avoiding partisan and political labels when describing themselves, Husser said.
“Outcomes in North Carolina elections are driven not only by whether the state has more Democrats or more Republicans, but also whether politicians can move those who identify with groups like working class, progressives or Second Amendment advocates,” he said in a statement. “We measured the scope of some of the largest politically relevant group identities in North Carolina to offer insight into why some ideas stick in the state and others struggle.”
North Carolinians were more likely to consider themselves “working class” (78%), “anti-racist” (74%), and “religious” (58%). Those descriptors were popular across party lines.
Among Republicans, 74% identified as MAGA — the sixth most-popular label. Eighty-four percent identified as “working class,” 83% as a “proud North Carolinian,” 81% as a “Second Amendment advocate,” 78% as “religious,” and 77% as “middle class.”
Among Democrats, “anti-racist” was the most common identity, with 80% describing themselves that way. Seventy-nine percent described themselves as “working class,” 76% as a “proud North Carolinian,” 73% as a “social justice advocate,” 72% as a “feminist,” and 70% as a “progressive.”
Independents described themselves using some of the same labels as Republicans and Democrats did, albeit at smaller rates. For instance, 56% of independents identified as “Second Amendment advocates” and 51% identified as a “feminist.”
“It’s easy to fall into stereotypical thinking about Democrats and Republicans as monolithic and totally distinct from one another,” Husser said. “However, we find enough overlap of group identities within North Carolina that suggest people with different political preferences often share many of the same ways of understanding themselves.”