Election results across the country are showing positive signs for Democrats. Since President Donald Trump started his second term, special elections to fill vacant Congressional seats have yielded tepid Republican turnout. Democrats have flipped more than two dozen GOP-held legislative seats. And in North Carolina, Democrats last year won almost every single municipal seat up for election in Wake County.
That raises the question: Can the Democrats harness that momentum to gain control of at least one chamber of the GOP-run North Carolina General Assembly? And, if not, will they be able to muster enough power to affect policy?
Other WRAL Top Stories
All 170 seats in the state legislature are up for election in November, as they are every year ending in an even number. Republicans currently — and for nearly all of the last decade — have held enough seats to enact many of their proposals with ease, even over objections of Democratic governors. The advantage has helped the GOP enact tax cuts, add abortion limits, reduce firearm restrictions, expand access to private schools and more.
The Nov. 3 elections give Democrats their best chance at gaining influence in years, political analysts say. And Republicans have already expressed concern about losing influence in the legislature. Historically, the political party that controls the White House usually fares poorly in the midterm elections up and down the ballot. Analysts expect that trend to continue. Support levels for the sitting president tends to provide some sense of how down-ballot races might play out.
Two-thirds of U.S. adults disapprove of President Donald Trump’s second-term performance, according to a poll conducted in late July by the Associated Press and National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago.
On the economy —- the top concern of prospective voters — only 32% of U.S. adults approve and many said the cost of everyday essentials like groceries and gas was a major source of stress in their lives.On Friday the federal government announced employers cut 23,000 jobs in July and cited the broader economic strains caused by Trump’s Iran war, among other factors.
Polls of North Carolinians show similar results. A June survey of 1,000 North Carolinians by Catawba College and YouGov found that 54% of them disapproved of Trump’s second term performance, while 43% approved. The findings were similar to those from a March poll of 800 North Carolinians by Elon University, which found that 55% disapproved of the job Trump is doing. About 55% of respondents said the economy had gotten worse during Trump’s second term. That’s up from 49% in September.
“Mid-term elections are very much referendums on the president and the party in power, and in only two cases since the end of World War II has the party in power in Congress gained seats: 1998 and 2002,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College.
Here are themes to watch as legislative races heat up.
Can Democrats win a majority?
If the Democratic momentum is enough to flip seats, can Democrats flip enough to win a majority in either chamber of the General Assembly?
Such a scenario would require a blue wave election that analysts view as possible but unlikely.
Republicans hold 30 of the 50 seats in the state Senate and 71 of the 120 seats in the state House of Representatives. Democrats haven’t controlled either chamber since 2010, partly because Republican legislators have redrawn legislative districts to favor GOP candidates.
Redistricting traditionally happens once every ten years, but has been a more frequent occurrence in North Carolina as new maps have been challenged in court, struck down, and redrawn several times in the past 15 years. Republican legislative leaders most recently redrew their districts in 2023.
Under the current legislative districts, Republicans are expected to keep their majorities in the state legislature — even if most North Carolina voters cast their ballots for Democrats, according to an analysis by Duke University researchers. Multiple predictive models used in recent redistricting lawsuits have shown that Democrats need to win far more than 50% of the statewide vote just to win 50% of the seats in the legislature.
The maps offer Democrats an easier path to a majority in the House than the Senate. They’ll need to flip 12 of the 71 Republican-held seats to take back the majority. And there are 14 Republican-held seats in the state House where at least 44% of voters in 2020 backed Democrat Joe Biden for President. Democrats will be targeting those districts ahead of November.
House Democrats are optimistic about gaining at least some seats this year, House Democratic leader Robert Reives, D-Chatham, has told reporters. At the same time, he said, Democrats know that favorable poll results don’t always guarantee victory on Election Day. In 2020, Democrats thought dissatisfaction with Trump would help them compete for a majority in the House. Some Democrats in the state House were practically measuring drapes in the speaker’s office, Reives told WRAL.
“Then a weird thing happened: we lost seats,” Reives said. Indeed, after winning 55 seats in 2018, Democrats won only 51 seats in 2020.
Can Democrats win enough to stop GOP legislation?
State law allows the governor to veto legislation he doesn’t like in most cases, but it also allows the General Assembly to override his veto if a supermajority — 60% lawmakers in each chamber — votes to do so. The more seats Democrats win, the weaker the threat of an override becomes.
Republicans have a supermajority in the Senate and, despite being one seat short of a supermajority in the House, have overridden many vetoes in the past two years with help of a handful of Democratic members, primarily: Carla Cunningham, Nasif Majeed, and Shelly Willingham.
Those three lawmakers each lost Democratic primaries this spring, prompting Cunningham and Majeed to leave the Democratic Party and become unaffiliated.
The Democrats who won those primaries — Rodney Sadler, Veleria Levy, Patricia Smith — are expected to win their general election races. Sadler and Levy are running unopposed for their Charlotte-area seats. Smith faces Republican Brent Roberson in a left-leaning district that includes parts of Bertie, Edgecombe, and Martin counties.
Reives said he’s confident Democrats will be able to block veto overrides next year with the minimum number of Democrats — 49 — so long as his caucus retains the current crop of party loyalists and adds Sadler, Levy and Smith.
But it could be difficult to protect a few Democratic incumbents, even in a favorable environment. Some Democrats are seeking reelection in districts that supported Trump in the 2024 election. House Speaker Destin Hall told WRAL he’s confident that Republicans will retain a “strong majority.”
“House Republicans have record-breaking fundraising, excellent candidates, and a strong record of tax cuts and teacher raises to campaign on,” Hall said.
Races to watch
House Republicans could temper Democratic gains — or regain a supermajority — by flipping seats held by Democrats.
Reps. Dante Pittman and Lindsey Prather are the most vulnerable Democrats because voters in their districts supported Trump in the 2024 election, said Chris Cooper, political science professor at Western Carolina University.
In 2024, Trump carried Prather’s Buncombe County district by about 3 percentage points and Pittman’s district — which includes Nash and Wilson counties — by less than 2 percentage points, election data show. Prather faces Republican Anthony Penland and Pittman faces Republican Blake Boykin.
The Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs, meanwhile, offer Democrats some of their best opportunities to flip seats.
In southern Wake County, Republican Rep. Erin Paré faces Democrat Winn Decker in a district that covers Fuquay-Varina and parts of Holly Springs. In northern Wake, Republican Rep. Mike Schietzelt faces Democrat Evonne Hopkins in a district that stretches from Wake Forest to Knightdale. The race is a rematch of their 2024 contest, which Schietzelt won by 3 percentage points.
And just to the east is the Nash County district held by Rep. Alan Chesser, the Republican with the tightest reelection contest. He faces Democrat Lorenza Wilkins and Libertarian Nick Taylor — a rematch from 2024, when Chesser won by less than 1 percentage point.
In Mecklenburg County, Democrats are also targeting a former member of theirs: Rep. Tricia Cotham. Cotham served in the legislature for a decade as a Democrat before abruptly switching parties in 2023 and joining the GOP — a move that has helped Republicans override gubernatorial vetoes.
Republican lawmakers redrew Cotham’s district after her 2023 party switch to help her reelection odds, but it remains one of the most competitive districts in the state. Cotham won reelection in 2024 despite Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carrying her district, albeit by less than one percentage point.
Cooper, the political scientist, said: If Democrats can protect their incumbents and flip seats in the suburbs, “that’s a sign the party is on its way to a very good night.”
WRAL state government reporters Will Doran and Caroline Yaffa contributed.