While the Autumnal Equinox is still three weeks away, you'll hear meteorologists (including us) tell you that September 1 marks the start of meteorological fall. This runs until November 30.

What is a meteorological season?

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Meteorological seasons are broken up this way for two reasons.

  1. It's much easier to have a consistent start and end date to a season when it comes to record-keeping. The earth's orbit is non-circular, and it takes (technically) 365.25 days to completely lap the sun. That's why our equinoxes and solstices happen on different dates each year.
    1. This typically marks the time in which the average temperature begins to drop.
      Average lows and highs during meteorological fall
      Average lows and highs during meteorological fall (© WRAL)

      How is fall trending in our area?

      Of all four seasons, fall is the one that's slowest to warm in the Triangle, according to Climate Central.

      Fall is the slowest-warming season of all four in Raleigh
      Fall is the slowest-warming season of all four in Raleigh (© WRAL)

      A warming fall can have impacts on the growing season, pests, pollen, etc. While there are always fluctuations year-to-year, the overall trend has been for the average fall temperature to rise by 2.7° in the Triangle since 1970.

      Here's how fall has warmed over the last 50+years in the Triangle
      Here's how fall has warmed over the last 50+years in the Triangle (© WRAL)

      With La Niña projected to continue into the fall, it's likely that the average pattern will keep the upper level winds calmer over the Eastern U.S. This may mean less-frequent harsh cold fronts, leading to above-average temperatures.

      Above-average temperatures forecast for Fall of 2024.
      Above-average temperatures forecast for Fall of 2024. (© WRAL)

      Above is the seasonal outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for the fall of 2024.