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Check out our guide to fall color in North Carolina or read how climate change is reshaping NC's fall colors.
As leaves change from green to shades of red, orange, yellow and brown, it's peak time for folks to flock to the western half of the state.
So, how are things going? What's expected moving forward? And what's driving the changes?
Current state of fall foliage in North Carolina
We utilize a number of sources when it comes to fall colors in North Carolina. One is "Fall Color Guy," who is a professor at Appalachian State University.
In a recent post to Facebook, he shows how recent weather has played a role on the leaf change in higher elevations.
Another source we've used in recent years is Explore Fall, a website designed by Evan Fisher, a UNC Asheville graduate and Peter Forister, a Virginia Tech graduate.
Explore Fall's most recent observation map shows a little change in the North Carolina mountains.
Although Wednesday is the beginning of October, it takes some time before we see significant changes in the color.
According to Explore Fall, the average peak fall foliage dates range from early October in our highest elevations to mid-to-late November along the coast. In the Triangle and Sandhills, the peak for fall foliage is usually around early November.
And it will take significant changes in our weather before we get anything vibrant showing up.
How, why do leaves change color in the first place?
We're going to take you back to elementary school with words like photosynthesis and chlorophyll.
Photosynthesis is how energy gets transferred from the sun to plants. Sunlight, carbon dioxide and water feed the plant, which gives us suger and oxygen in return.
As sunlight decreases, nutrients for the leaves do too. The chlorophyll that gives leaves their green color gets choked off, exposing different shades of color.
In October, we lose an average of two minutes, 13 seconds of daylight per day.
The weather also needs to be just right. Ideally, you'd get cool mornings, sunshine and just enough rain.
The colder and drier it is, the faster the leaf change happens. The warmer and wetter it is, the more delayed the foliage will be.
Explore Fall mentions that drought stress on the leaves is low, locally, but it it is higher as you venture farther north toward Virginia's Blue Ridge, the Shenandoah Valley and parts of West Virginia.
Will the next week bring any changes?
Our local weather, and the weather in the mountains, doesn't feature a whole lot of rain.
Immediately, however, there will be some cool mornings. That's especially the case between now and Sunday, the 5th.
However, in the long-term, warmer-than-average weather is expected over the Eastern U.S. as high pressure strengthens. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows above-average temperatures are likely between October 6 and October 10.
Therefore, we don't expect a ton of change in the Triangle and Sandhills. Some leaves will start to turn or drop in the Foothills and Piedmont. Meanwhile, elevations above 3,000 feet will start to see more color in the following week.
Have questions about the weather and how it works?
Send me an email with the subject line 'Ask the Meteorologist:' to cmichaels@pugongyingbo.com.