Kosmos 482 (also known as Cosmos 482), a Soviet-era Venus lander launched in 1972, is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere around 11:37 p.m. EDT on Friday May 9. Originally intended to descend through the dense atmosphere of Venus, the spacecraft failed to escape Earth orbit and has remained in low Earth orbit for more than 50 years.
Satellite reentries are increasingly commonas the inventory of objects in orbit grows with short-lived internet satellite constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon’s Project Kuiper, and Eutelsat’s OneWeb.
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This week alone, two Starlink satellites launched in 2020 and 2023 from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base, respectively, as well as a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite launched from NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in 2023, are also expected to reenter this week. However, unlike modern satellites designed to disintegrate completely during reentry, Kosmos 482 was built to survive much more extreme conditions.
Kosmos 482 was meant to descend through Venus’ thick atmosphere.This could enable parts of the satellite to survive the intense heat and pressure of Earth reentry.
Measuring approximately 12 feet by 13 feet, the cylindrical probe may produce a spectacular light show as it streaks through the sky, and fragments could potentially reach the surface.
However, experts note that with nearly 75% of the Earth covered by oceans, any surviving debris is most likely to fall into the sea.
When and Where Will Kosmos 482 Reenter?
According to the Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS), current projections show reentry around 11:37 p.m. EDT on Friday, May 9. However, the margin of error is wide—plus or minus 16 hours—making precise timing and location predictions highly uncertain.
The satellite’s potential reentry point currently falls off the northeastern coast of Australia, but chances of this being exactly where the spacecraft enterrs are extremely slim. Forecasting satellite reentry is similar to tracking hurricanes: predictions become more accurate in the short term, but longer-term estimates carry significant uncertainty.
As Earth’s gravity continues to pull Kosmos 482 into lower altitudes, atmospheric drag will increase, and analysts will be able to refine predictions. Ongoing tracking will help narrow the window in the hours leading up to reentry.