The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign finds what continues to be a neck-and-neck contest, defined by clashing forces that have aided both Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in their pursuit of the White House.
Boosting Harris: rising Democratic enthusiasm, a 20-point lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, and an advantage for Harris on which candidate better looks out for the middle class.
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Helping Trump: two-thirds of voters who believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a favorable assessment of Trump’s presidency (especially compared with President Joe Biden’s current performance), and Trump’s double-digit advantage on the economy and the cost of living.
What also defines this close contest is the intense polarization in this country, including a more than 30-point gender gap in the voting preferences of men and women, as well as 60% of voters who believe the country will remain divided – regardless of who wins the presidential race.
And what additionally stands out in the survey is how little has changed in the contest since last month, despite the frenzied campaign activity in the final weeks and despite the billions of dollars in advertisements.
"This is very stable data from where we were in October," said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
"We’re grown further apart, and we’ve picked our corner," McInturff added. "Each side is as locked down as it gets, and they don’t budge or move."
Taken together, the poll shows Harris getting support from 49% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 49%. Just 2% of voters say they’re undecided.
This is essentially unchanged from the NBC News poll in October, when the two candidates were deadlocked at 48% each.
On an expanded ballot including third-party candidates, Trump is at 47% and Harris at 46%, with a combined 7% backing other candidates or who are undecided – again, unchanged from October.
Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll also provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
A slightly more favorable environment for Republicans — which means greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees by a few percentage points — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 50%-48%.
But in a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means a slight increase in women, white voters with college degrees and voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points, 50%-47%.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Yet because of the nation’s Electoral College system, the presidential contest will ultimately be decided by what happens in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And the latest polls of those states find razor-close margins as well.
A 34-point gender gap
At 49%-49%, the NBC News poll results are as close as possible. But among different groups, there remain enormous differences in candidate support.
The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among Black voters (87%-9%), younger voters ages 18 to 29 (57% to 41%) and white voters with college degrees (55% to 43%).
Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without college degrees (64%-34%).
Yet what continues to stand out as one of the defining features of the election is the enormous gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a 16-point margin (57%-41%) and men backing Trump by 18-points (58%-40%).
This net 34-point gender gap is larger than the 30-point gap the poll showed in October's poll.
Harris, meanwhile, holds an 8-point advantage among independent voters, 51% to 43%. Yet she’s ahead by just 9 points among Latino voters, 53% to 44%, though the sample size here is small and the margin of error is considerably larger compared with the overall survey.
Harris leads on abortion, middle class; Trump is ahead on cost of living and border
On the issues and presidential characteristics, Harris maintains a significant advantage on the issue of abortion, leading Trump by 20 points on which candidate better handles the issue.
Harris also is ahead of Trump by 9 points, 51% to 42%, on which candidate better looks out for the middle class.
By contrast, Trump holds double-digit leads on which candidate better handles the economy (51% to 41%) and deals with the cost of living (52% to 40%). He also maintains his 25-point edge on securing the border and controlling immigration.
But voters are essentially split on which candidate better represents change (46% pick Harris, 41% select Trump), and they’re divided over who is competent and effective (with 47% saying Trump and 45% saying Harris).
That’s a slight reversal from October, when 48% of voters said Harris was competent and effective, versus 43% for Trump.
Biden remains a drag for Democrats
The NBC News poll shows 41% of registered voters approving of President Joe Biden’s job, versus 58% who say they disapprove.
That’s down slightly from the 43% who approved of his job in October.
By comparison, when voters were asked to assess Trump’s time in office, 48% approve of the former president’s job, versus 51% who disapprove – identical to what the poll found last month.
And asked what concerns them more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president — 41% of voters say they are more concerned about Harris following in Biden’s path, compared with 40% who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his term.
An additional 14% of voters say neither is a concern.
54% say they’ve already voted
The poll, which was in the field through Saturday night, also finds 54% of registered voters saying they already voted, plus another 11% who say they plan to vote early.
Among these combined 65% of early voters, Harris leads Trump by 7 points in the head-to-head race, 53% to 46%. That’s a significant change from the final 2020 NBC News poll, when Biden was ahead of Trump by more than 20 points among these voters.
Among the 33% of voters who say they’ll wait until Election Day voters, Trump holds a 16-point lead, 56% to 40%. it's Trump 56%, Harris 40%.
That’s compared with Trump’s nearly 30-point among these Election Day voters four years ago.
60% believe nation will remain divided
No matter who wins the presidential contest, 60% of registered voters in the poll say the United States will remain divided, versus 28% who think it will be more united.
Other findings in the poll
Harris and Trump have almost identical scores in popularity, with 43% of voters viewing Harris positively and 50% viewing her negatively (-7 net rating). That’s compared with Trump’s score of 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).
And when it comes to the battle for Congress, 47% of voters say they prefer Democrats to control Congress, while 46% want Republicans in charge. The two parties were tied on this question last month – at 47% each.
The NBC News poll was conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 of 1,000 registered voters – most of whom were contacted by cell phone – and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.