With a high chance that we will see two tropical systems in close proximity in the coming days, a lot of questions come up: how will these storms interact? Will one overpower the other? Will they separate and go on their own paths?
An example of how these storms interact is the Fujiwhara effect. This occurs when two areas of low pressure (like a tropical system) are within a little under a thousand miles of each other, and they begin to interact in a “dance”-like manner.
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As they do this dance around one common center, there are some different outcomes that can occur. Sometimes one storm is stronger than the other, so the weaker storm ends up getting torn apart. Other times, the storms are closer in strength, so they will “dance” around each before going their separate ways. Very rarely the storms will combine into one larger storm.
Yesterday’s forecast model runs showed the possibility of the dancing effect with the storms staying at similar strength and rotating around each other in the Atlantic before going on their own path. Another run showed the new system crashing into Humberto and moving out into the Atlantic. The most recent forecast model runs show a different solution: our next tropical system stays more removed from Humberto and possibly makes landfall in the Carolinas and interacts with a cold front at the coast. The new system would weaken inland, and as Humberto gets stronger, it would absorb the leftover moisture eventually.
Regardless of the movement of these storms, rough surf and a high risk for rip currents will be likely during at least the first half of next week. As these systems become better organized, we’ll have a better grasp of the path and intensity.