WRAL released its Atlantic hurricane season outlook Monday evening.
You can watch and read it here.
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Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, though there's been debate over the years as to whether or not the official start to the season should be sooner.
On May 15, the National Hurricane Center starts issuing outlooks every six hours to diagnose the odds of tropical development.
The most recent outlook Tuesday morning shows no chance of development within the Atlantic Basin in the next seven days.
History of pre-June storms
Since 1851, there have been more than 30 storms that have formed in the Atlantic Basin before June 1.
Obviously, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season isn't until late August through mid-October.
The argument to start Atlantic hurricane season before June 1 could be (in part) due to recency bias. When looking at the last ten years, six of those have seen storms develop before the official start date.
How can storms form before June 1?
Oftentimes, storms that form before the start of the season will do so along a stalled front.
With weaker upper-level wind support, fronts can move off the coast and sit. New low pressure systems can form and eventually gain tropical/subtropical characteristics.
Some of you may remember Ana in 2015 being one of those storms.
Currently, there is a large swath of warm ocean waters from the Gulf to the Caribbean to the Atlantic.
When taking a Tropical Meteorology course at NC State, Dr. Lian Xie told us that the ocean temperature needs to be 80°F in order for a tropical system to form. We have that.
However, we also have a lot of disruptive wind in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
So, yes. We can and do see storms develop before June. This time around, however, the odds of that happening are quite low.