Living in North Carolina means understanding that our weather has its abrupt changes and forecast challenges. A couple of weeks ago, after hitting 76° at RDU on Jan. 10th, 2026, we dropped into the 30s just 24 hours later.
Even this temperature swing can't compare to the huge shift in predictions leading up to the most historic snowfall our area has ever experienced.
Other WRAL Top Stories
Jan. 24-25th, 2000, nicknamed "Raleigh's Snowmageddon," brought over 20 inches of snow to parts of the Triangle, and just two days prior, forecast models showed next to nothing. An area of low pressure developed in the Gulf, moved across Florida and tracked along the Atlantic coast.
Forecast models vastly underestimated the strength of that low-pressure system. Models eventually picked up on the system, but it was so close to the event.
Meteorologist Elizabeth Gardner said, "Even though the models started to show a major snowstorm about 12 hours before the storm arrived, we still thought it was crazy because we just never had snow like that in our area."
Models originally had the majority of the precipitation towards the coastline.
Two days before the event, the liquid equivalent precipitation was at most .1" to .25" in our area, and that was closer to the Coastal Plain. The actual event brought a liquid equivalent of at least 1.5" to much of the area.
Although some sleet fell earlier in the event, the snow totals quickly added up.
The predictions for snow totals were also changing rapidly. At first, three to six inches of snow were predicted. That was at 11 p.m. on the 24th.
By 1 a.m., the predictions were up to 6-12 inches. Then they jumped to 8-15 inches by 5 a.m. on the 25th!
By the end of the event, Raleigh ended up with 20.3" of snow. Multiple other spots had close to 20". Southern Pines got up to 19", and both Durham and Roxboro saw 18".
This storm left more than 300,000 without power in the Carolinas, caused an estimated $800 million in damage and many parts of I-40 and I-85 were impassable.
Fortunately, with model advancements in the many years since that event, we will have a better idea in advance that we are going to have a heavy snow event. To put those improvements into perspective, five-day predictions are now as accurate as three-day predictions were back in 2000.
As models continue to evolve with improving technology, we will be able to more accurately predict what types of precipitation we will see and how much will fall with more time before the storm.
Now, 26 years later, another winter storm is likely to impact our area. Impacts will be different, however, because this storm will bring more freezing rain, creating ice problems.
Power outages and travel impacts will last into the first half of the week of Jan. 25. Remember to use safe heating sources and have an emergency kit handy!
It's still important to get your information from trusted weather sources like the WRAL Severe Weather team, because forecast models do have biases and errors.
Download the WRAL Weather App to get live updates to changes in weather and what to do in a storm.
