A new weather model is set to make its debut in WRAL forecasts soon, and after months of testing, it’s already earning high marks from our weather team.
The National Weather Service recently announced a major upgrade to the tools meteorologists use every day. Several older forecast models will be phased out and replaced by a brand-new high-resolution model known as the RRFS.
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The RRFS is a high-resolution model. High-resolution models can better capture small-scale weather features, helping meteorologists fine-tune the forecast for the timing and intensity of storms.
Although WRAL viewers haven’t seen the RRFS graphics on television yet, the WRAL Severe Weather Center has been using the model behind the scenes for quite some time. We’ve tested it during hurricane season, winter storms and everyday weather patterns.
So far, the results have been impressive. The RRFS has done a particularly good job forecasting rainfall totals and the timing of precipitation. We’re excited to begin incorporating this new model into our WRAL-TV forecasts in the near future.
The transition does come with one bittersweet change: the retirement of the NAM. The NAM wasn’t always our go-to model, but it had one standout strength: forecasting a uniquely challenging NC weather pattern known as cold air damming.
Cold air damming is common in North Carolina and occurs when cool air becomes trapped east of the Appalachian Mountains. This setup can lead to stubborn clouds, chilly temperatures, freezing rain and significant forecast challenges. Meteorologists in the Carolinas have long relied on the NAM for guidance during these tricky setups.
Forecasting tools are constantly improving, and this latest change is another example of how weather technology continues to advance. We hope the arrival of the RRFS will be an exciting step forward.